Some Macau gamblers previously hosted by Junket appear to be actually “moving to direct VIPs and premium mass” to help a return to positive earnings since the start of the calendar year, according to a note from Hong Kong-based analyst Andrew Lee on Wednesday. He runs a division in Macau and cites comments from two U.S.-based casino groups that reported fourth-quarter results on the day.
Li observed that the fourth quarter was not a “concentration” from investors as it relates to the period before mainland China and Macau relaxed COVID-19 control rules, a change that occurred in early January.
But the analyst said the Macau market recovery is “following up” the kind of strong gains seen in the Las Vegas casino market in the U.S. after returning to pre-pandemic operating conditions in mid-2021.
“The volume of volume VIPs and direct VIPs recovered to ‘far above’ Lunar New Year in 2019, generating very large US$5 million in January pre-interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization earnings,” DSKIM of JPMorgan Securities (Asia Pacific) said in a note on MGM China on Thursday. Mr. Kim said, “We [this] I believe we should be close to record levels.”
He added. “GM’s GGR [Game Gross Income] market share, including VIP, was 16% in January, well ahead of the 10% level from 9% in 2019. The company appears to have gained shares in both public and direct VIPs until the post-COVID recovery.” 파칭코
“Direct VIP trading volume has risen to 140% of 2019 Lunar New Year’s level,” Kim said in a separate note on Wynn Macau, which has specialized in serving Junket-hosted VIP players until the market shrank in late January.
Kim did not directly comment on the 2019 baseline for the VIP business, but said the reorganization of Win Macau’s market structure allowed the company to “maintain its total GGR market share compared to 2019 and print $4 million of EBITDA daily during the Lunar New Year.”
Mr. Lee of Jefferies Group said the week-long business volume remained “stronger” than the market’s “normal trend.” “It’s a strong start to the year on the back of strong pent-up demand,” he said.
The brokerage estimates that GGR and Macau visitor arrivals peaked as “part of the blues after the holiday,” but Macau gaming revenue averaged $380 million ($47 million) per day in the first five days of February, suggesting it remained “above break-even and stronger” than expected.